China's Foreign Policy on the Middle East

Acknowledgements I Table of contents III List of abbreviations VI Introduction 1 1. A theory of geoeconomics and how it is applied in foreign affairs: Explaining the geoeconomic rationale underlying China’s Belt and Road Initiative 8 1.1 An excursus: The increasing role of cyberwarfare in international affairs 9 1.2 China responds to U.S. dominance in global finance and development assistance by establishing an alternative set of financial institutions which further are the strategic means to implement the Belt and Road Initiative 12 1.3 Conceptualizing China’s Belt and Road Initiative 22 2. China and Iran share a geostrategic grand vision of expanding their influence over the Middle East and pursue this key objective through building a de facto alliance and by implementing the Belt and Road Initiative 32 2.1 The economic dimensions of Sino-Iranian relations are characterized by China allowing its de facto ally Iran to play a geostrategic key role regarding the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative 33 2.2 The military dimensions of Sino-Iranian relations allow Teheran to illegally acquire nuclear technology from European countries through Beijing 36 2.3 An excursus: Iran, Afghanistan and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: A geostrategic design and an integrative part of the Belt and Road Initiative 43 3. Saudi Arabia’s role as a geostrategic asset and player in the Middle East: Participating in the destruction and restoration of the regional order 48 3.1 Energy security in the 21st century: Saudi Arabia’s role as an important oil and gas supplier for China in the context of its de facto alliance with the U.S. 54 3.2 An excursus: The Trump administration’s geostrategic key objectives in its foreign policy on the Middle East 58 3.3 Comparing the two key players in Middle Eastern affairs, namely Iran and Saudi Arabia 60 4. The Qatar crisis: Analyzing the prospects of an economic war in the Middle East 63 4.1 Assessing possible geostrategic outcomes of the unfolding crisis 74 4.2 The geostrategic impact of the Qatar crisis on China and the U.S.: Recommendations for their respective foreign and security policies 77 5. The referendum on independence in Iraqi Kurdistan and Sino-Kurdish relations: Strengthening of economic ties in the context of a remaining political dilemma 82 5.1 An excursus: Explaining the basics of the political system of the Kurdistan Regional Government 84 5.2 The process of removing two key obstacles to the establishment of an independent Kurdish nation state 88 5.3 The prospects of Iraqi-Kurdistan’s integration into China’s Belt and Road Initiative 98 5.4 The emergence of a Turkish-Iranian alliance against the Kurds: The Kurdish referendum as the pretext for a new war in the Middle East? 103 6. The Turkish factor in the geopolitical equation of Middle Eastern affairs and the role of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization 110 Acknowledgements I Table of contents III List of abbreviations VI Introduction 1 1. A theory of geoeconomics and how it is applied in foreign affairs: Explaining the geoeconomic rationale underlying China’s Belt and Road Initiative 8 1.1 An excursus: The increasing role of cyberwarfare in international affairs 9 1.2 China responds to U.S. dominance in global finance and development assistance by establishing an alternative set of financial institutions which further are the strategic means to implement the Belt and Road Initiative 12 1.3 Conceptualizing China’s Belt and Road Initiative 22 2. China and Iran share a geostrategic grand vision of expanding their influence over the Middle East and pursue this key objective through building a de facto alliance and by implementing the Belt and Road Initiative 32 2.1 The economic dimensions of Sino-Iranian relations are characterized by China allowing its de facto ally Iran to play a geostrategic key role regarding the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative 33 2.2 The military dimensions of Sino-Iranian relations allow Teheran to illegally acquire nuclear technology from European countries through Beijing 36 2.3 An excursus: Iran, Afghanistan and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: A geostrategic design and an integrative part of the Belt and Road Initiative 43 3. Saudi Arabia’s role as a geostrategic asset and player in the Middle East: Participating in the destruction and restoration of the regional order 48 3.1 Energy security in the 21st century: Saudi Arabia’s role as an important oil and gas supplier for China in the context of its de facto alliance with the U.S. 54 3.2 An excursus: The Trump administration’s geostrategic key objectives in its foreign policy on the Middle East 58 3.3 Comparing the two key players in Middle Eastern affairs, namely Iran and Saudi Arabia 60 4. The Qatar crisis: Analyzing the prospects of an economic war in the Middle East 63 4.1 Assessing possible geostrategic outcomes of the unfolding crisis 74 4.2 The geostrategic impact of the Qatar crisis on China and the U.S.: Recommendations for their respective foreign and security policies 77 5. The referendum on independence in Iraqi Kurdistan and Sino-Kurdish relations: Strengthening of economic ties in the context of a remaining political dilemma 82 5.1 An excursus: Explaining the basics of the political system of the Kurdistan Regional Government 84 5.2 The process of removing two key obstacles to the establishment of an independent Kurdish nation state 88 5.3 The prospects of Iraqi-Kurdistan’s integration into China’s Belt and Road Initiative 98 5.4 The emergence of a Turkish-Iranian alliance against the Kurds: The Kurdish referendum as the pretext for a new war in the Middle East? 103 6. The Turkish factor in the geopolitical equation of Middle Eastern affairs and the role of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization 110 6.1 Turkey’s de facto integration into China’s geostrategic grand design, namely its Belt and Road Initiative 114 6.2 The China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization in foreign affairs and its role in implementing the Belt and Road Initiative 116 6.3 A comparison between the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization with respect to their key objectives and strategic weak points 119 Concluding remarks 125 References 134

Alexander Maxa was born on April 22, 1991. He studied Economics and Politics at the University of Erfurt. During his studies, he focussed on econometrics, political economy and international relations, stressing the importance of geoeconomics as an increasingly important tool in modern politics and analyzing the phenomenon of failed states. Furthermore, he worked at the Mustafa Barzani Section of Kurdish Studies, a former research institution in Erfurt. Alexander Maxa has lived, studied and worked in China. Among other things, he studied at Zhejiang University of Science and Technology (ZUST) in Hangzhou, Shaanxi Normal University (SNU) in Xian and researched at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Beijing during an internship. Currently, he works in the private sector as a System Developer.